Fibonacci - Leonardo of Pisa not "Pisang"

I’m a great admirer of Gann, Elliot and Jesse Livermore. Noticed that most Gann & Elliot works were based on Fibonacci’s Golden Ratio. Here some background - Who the Heck is Fibonacci & the Mysterous Golden Ratio?

The Fibonacci number series and the Golden Ratio are two very important mathematical principles which occur repeatedly in nature, art, architecture and science. These principles have been noted to occur in everything from growth patterns of plants to the expanding spiral of the universe.

The mass movements of human pychology as represented by the financial markets, also subject to these laws of nature. While the financial market will not follow an exact fibonacci pattern all of the time, they will do so often enough that Fibonacci can be a very useful in trading.

Leonardo Fibonacci was a 13th century mathematician who through his writings in "LIBER ABACI" brought the modern world not only the Fibonacci number series, but also our present system of counting. This system using symbols 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 eventually replaced the traditional Roman numeral system throughout the world.

The principle of Golden Ratio refers of 0.618 in dividing a given space. Each number in the Fibo sequence (1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89) is related to the next number by a ratio 0.618. Each number in sequence is related to the previous number by a ratio of 1.618. Alternate numbers in the sequence are related by the ratios of 0.382 and 2.618. These ratios become more exact as the number sequence proceeds.

Fibonacci discovery of the number series is often attributed to his observations of the great pyramid of GIZEH. The pyramid is 5813 inches high (5-8-13 are all Fibo numbers). Futher the proportions of height to the edges of the pyramid are all in an exact 0.618 ratio. Lending itself to the measurement of time, the total length of the pyramid base is 36524 inches, which is exactly 100 times the length of the solar year.

MORE ON FIBONACCI (Check it out, very interesting):
- WIKIPEDIA
- Islamic Research Foundation International, Inc

FIBONACCI RELATIONSHIPS

Fibonacci Number Series:

1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987. . .

How to compute the Fibonacci series:

• 1 + 1 = 2
• 1 + 2 = 3
• 2 + 3 = 5
• 3 + 5 = 8
• 5 + 8 = 13
• 8 + 13 = 21
• 13 + 21 = 34
• 21 + 34 = 55
• 34 + 55 = 89
• 89 + 55 = 144
• etc.

Ratios Of Adjacent Numbers In The Series (AKA Golden Section Ratio):

• 89/144 = .618
• 144/233 = .618

• 144/89 = 1.618
• 233/144 = 1.618

Ratios Of Alternate Numbers In The Series:

• 89/233 = .382
• 144/377 = .382

• 233/89 = 2.618
• 377/144 = 2.618

FBO to buy or not to buy?

Share prices closed firmer led by selected blue chips on interest from local funds. KLCI was up 2.56 points or 0.26 pct at 968.88, off its intraday high of 970.79 in morning trade.Trading volume was 490.16 mln shares valued 702.13 mln rgt. Local funds seem to be finally coming back in the market, with strong plays in blue chips especially big capitalized stocks like Malayan Banking and Genting. This seems to be a good development for the market, however the gains can be sustained as profit-taking is expected to cap gains above the 970 points level. If no follow-through buying from local funds in the next few days, then profit-taking could likely push the index back down to 960 points; and if this (support level) is broken, it could fall to 955 points followed by 950 points.

Aiiyah! Hopes for small fish, keep on getting big fish. This is what people called Stock Market. Thank God!

Managed took some profit on JOTECH & MANGIUM today. However, SYMPHNY continue sleeping, accumulate more at 32 sen. Dunno can go or not (may be kena pick up).

Actually, I dunno what more to buy today. Spent time watching Puncak-Wa, Ramunia-Pa - afraid to go in. Watch some more, found very heavy moving counter (FBO) crawling slowly back to 16 sen. To buy or not to buy?

FBO (2097)
Better bet at 0.15 and below - Trading play - Up 5 sen (1 bid) lari kuat-kuat.
Probably cannot contra.



Business Activity:
PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT CONTRACTOR INVESTMENT HOLDING

Recent News:
FURQAN TERMINATES PURCHASE OF UNIT - 15 Aug 2006
FBO UNIT IN KELANTAN COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT - 07 Jul 2006
FURQAN BUSINESS RECEIVES PROFIT GUARANTEE PROPOSAL - 10 May 2006
FURQAN UNIT TO DISPOSE LANF FOR RM15M - 12 Apr 2006


And Last But not Least
THE TOM YAM RAW ANALYSIS FOR 28 Sept 2006

HAPPY HUNTING!!

"Sleepy" Wednesday

Gosh!!! I'm having bad sinus problem today. Took flu pills, feeling very sleepy. Noticed that catchin big fish on Nexnews while others (Jotech, Symphny) still`keras'. Managed to take profit on Nexnews at 80 sen.

Here's some guides/analysis after market close on Tues 27 Sep 2006:

CHAP AYAM RAW ANALYSIS 27 Sep 2006.

KLCI Trapped Between 955 to 970

Nothing much from the market today. KLCI still trapped between 955 to 970 (see the weekly chart below).

As for SYMPHNY, NEXNEWS & JOTECH - my hunting is still on. Fishing at the bottom, no big fish in mind just cukup tambang monorail.

TOMYAM RAW RESEARCH 26 Sept 2006


For nice delicious Tomyam: click here!

SYMPHNY (0016)

Best buy between 0.305 to 0.315
Immediate target between 0.335 to 0.345

For 25/9/2006 the closing price was 0.3250.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 0.34.
The projected lower bound is: 0.31.
STOP LOSS: 0.30

Business Activity
INVESTMENT HLDG PROV OF APPLICATION SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENTS COMPUTER SOLUTIONS AND IT SERVICES PROV OF CORP SERVICES

Recent News:
SYMPHONY ISSUES IST TRANCHE OF ISLAMIC NOTES - 28 July 2006
SYMPHONY HOUSE COMPLIES WITH PUBLIC SPREAD - 19 July 2006
SYMPHONY HOUSE ACQUIRES ACCOUNTING & SECRETARIAL UNIT FOR RM16.5M - 30 May 2006
SYMPHONY HOUSE TO BORROW RM100M IN ISLAMIC FACILITIES - 03 April 2006
SC APPROVES PROPOSED ACQUISITIONS BY BOLTON - 07 February 2006
SYMPHONY HOUSE - PUBLIC SPREAD AS AT DEC 2005 - 19 January 2006

CHAP AYAM RAW RESEARCH 25 Sep 2006

Happy Hunting!!!

JOTECH, MEXTER, NEXNEWS, HEXZA


SUNGAI BULOH 24 Sept - Share prices close on Friday with a little changed ahead of Bank Negara Malaysia's decision on interest rates at a meeting next Tuesday.

The central bank is expected to keep its key rate unchanged at 3.50 pct after the government reported a mild increase in inflation for August.

On Friday, the market narrowed its losses from the morning session, when Tenaga led the fall following reports the energy/water minister warned against speculating on the renegotiations of power purchase agreements with the independent power producers.

The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) ended last week down 0.85 points or 0.09 pct at 965.23, off a low of 962.69 points. For the week, the KLCI was up 3.24
points or 0.65 pct.

The peaceful and bloodless Thai coup had little implications on our stock market. Instead, investors’ focus was on plummeting crude oil price and the Fed’s decision to keep interest rate status quo. Regional stock markets also performed rather strongly yesterday.

Generally, KLCI is now testing an immediate intra-day resistance of 966 pts level. It now appears that the 966 pts level will be taken out anytime soon, bringing the key index to the formidable 970 pts level. The 970 pts level was the peak of the earlier rally and the same was tested in early September. We will see if the third attempt could turn out to be a real breakout.

As mentioned before, the immediate technical outlook of the market will remain bullish so long as the key index continues to trade within the bullish territory of the Bollinger Band. To the downside, continue to look for the 957 pts level or 948 pts level.

Chap Ayam Raw Analysis 22 Sep 2006

For viewing, pls click on the picture to enlarge.

JOTECH (7104)
Best buy between 1.10 to 1.15

For 22/9/2006 the closing price was 1.1800.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.27.
The projected lower bound is: 1.09.
STOP LOSS: 1.08

Business Activity:
DESIGN FABRICATE & COMMISSION OF AUTO EQPT AND SYS FOR SEMICONDUCTORS & ELECTRONIC IND MFR OF HIGH PRECISION TOOLING DIE SETS SEMICOND MOULDS AND PARTS

Recent News:
AIC CORP DISPOSES 20.0M SHARES IN JOTECH - 07 Sept 2006
SC APPROVES JOTECH PROPOSED PRIVATE PLACEMENT - 07 Sep 2006
JOTECH HOLDINGS SETTLES DISPUTE WITH MINORITY SHAREHOLDERS - 28 Aug JOTECH HOLDINGS UNIT BUYS INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY IN JOHOR - 15 Aug
JOTECH HOLDINGS PROPOSES PRIVATE PLACEMENT & SHARE SPLIT - 11 Aug
JOTECH HOLDINGS COMPLIES WITH PUBLIC SPREAD - 17 July 2006
JOTECH REFUTES PRESS ARTICLE REGARDING POSSIBILITY OF TAKING COMPANY PRIVATE - 21 June 2006

How The Forex Market Work?

Learn how the largest and fastest growing market can work for you. The forex market provides plenty of opportunity for investors. However, in order to be successful, a currency trader has to understand the basics behind currency movements. The foreign exchange market is the "place" where currencies are traded. Currencies are important to most people around the world, whether they realize it or not, because currencies need to be exchanged in order to conduct foreign trade and business.

Full Tutorial: INVESTOPEDIA

Who the Heck is W.D. Gann?

William Delbert Gann (June 6, 1878 – June, 1955), usually just called W. D. Gann, is famous as one of the most successful stock and commodity traders in history. Although he currently garners little name-recognition with the general public, he has become a legend amongst open-minded traders the world over. He was famous not only for his legendary trading abilities, but also for his financial market forecasts which achieved a spectacular track-record of accuracy.

Full Journal: WIKIPEDIA

MANGIUM , CHEETAH & POSHLDG

KUALA LUMPUR 21 Sept. - Share prices closed higher as August inflation data gave rise to hopes that the central bank will again keep its key rate unchanged at its policy meeting next week.

The government announced after market close yesterday that consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.3 pct year-on-year in August, slowing from a growth of 4.1 pct in July. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) closed up 6.46 points or 0.67 pct at 966.08.

Our views on NEXNEWS & KLCCP still hold as per yesterday. As for today the "CHAP AYAM BOARD OF DIRECTORS" selected the following counters:

MANGIUM (7037)

Best buy between 0.365 to 0.38

For 21/9/2006 the closing price was 0.41.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 0.49.
The projected lower bound is: 0.33.
STOP LOSS: 0.33

Business Activity
MFR & MKTG OF TIMBER & TIMBER RELATED PRODUCTS; HARVESTING & MKTG OF PLANTATION TIMBER; PLANTATION TIMBER AND RELATED PRODUCTS.

Recent News:
MANGIUM UNIT REPORTS DEFAULT - 18 Sept2006
MANGIUM - AUG 2006 LOGS/TIMBER PRODUCTION - 14 Sept 2006
MANGIUM - JUL 2006 LOGS/TIMBER PRODUCTION - 24 Augt 2006
MANGIUM - JULY 2006 DEBT DEFAULT - 24 Aug 2006
MANGIUM - JUN 2006 TIMBER/LOGS PRODUCTION - 25 Jul 2006
MANGIUM INDUSTRIES JUN 2006 DEBT DEFAULT - 25 Jul 2006

CHEETAH (7209)
Better bet around 0.54 to 0.55

For 21/9/2006 the closing price was 0.575.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 0.60.
The projected lower bound is: 0.55.
STOP LOSS: 0.51

Business Activity
PRODUCT DESIGNING PRODUCT DEVELOPEMNT MKTG AND RETAILING OF SPORTS APPAREL AND ACCESS & CASUAL WEAR UNDER OWN BRAND NAME

POSHLDG (4634)
Strong Uptrend - Better bet less then 4.84

For 31/9/2006 the closing price was 4.86.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 5.04.
The projected lower bound is: 4.70.
STOP LOSS: Below 4.70

Business Activity
PROPERTY MGMT POSTAL AND ITS RELATED SERVICES PTG & INSERTION OF DOCUMENTS FOR MAILING

Recent News:
POS TO SELL PRE-PAID MOBILE PHONE RELOADS - 11 Aug 2006
POS COMPLIES WITH PUBLIC SPREAD - 17 Jul 2006
TRANSMILE DENIES TRUTH OF THE EDGE ARTICLE - 21 Jun 2006
POS EXPLAINS FYE DEC2005 RECORD BREAKING RESULTS - 14 Jun 2006

Inflation Rate Easing Further

BUKIT BINTANG 21 Sept - August inflation rate lower than expected. Growth in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) moderated sharply to 3.3% y-o-y in August (July: +4.1%), resuming its declining trend since the peak of 4.8% recorded in February. The reading was lower than the consensus estimate of 3.6%.

Full Write-up: OSK Research

ACB (5657) - Wed 20 Sept 2006

For Wed 20 Sept 2006, share prices closed lower as the military coupin Thailand gave investors an excuse to lock in profits. The market is also waiting for the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting. KLCI closed down 3.20 points or 0.33pct at 959.62.

I did buy 5,000 units of NEXNEWS at 0.68 today dan diposed my 2,000 units BERNAS at 1.75.

As for today, my CHAP AYAM INDICATOR filtered ACB as a potential continuation of its uptrend. However, its quite risky becoz of low volume. Buying zone is between 0.805 to 0.815 and Cut Loss if it drops below 0.80.



Business Activity
STEEL SERVICES INTERNATINAL TRADING AND DIST OF ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS MFR & DIST OF AUTO

Recent News
ACB UNIT DISPOSES INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY - 16 Aug 2006
ACB TAKEOVER BY LION CORP EXCEEDS 50 PER CENT - 28 Apr 2006
AMSTEEL CORP EGM APPROVES DISPOSAL OF ACB SHARES VIA TAKEOVER BY LION CORP - 25 Apr 2006

NEXNEWS (6025) & KLCCP (5089)

As for today (Tues Sept 19, 2006), the Chap Ayam Indicator's filtered 2 counters. For NEXNEWS, its seem that it has rallied from 0.50 to 0.79 before corrected today. As for KLCCP, although the it looks like there gonna be a potential rebound toward 2.32, however the volume is still weak (extra cautious)


NEXNEWS
Best accumulate between 0.70 to 0.67 and hope for a rebound to 0.81. Cut Loss if falls below 0.67.
For 19/9/2006 the closing price was 0.71.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 0.77.
The projected lower bound is: 0.67.

Business Activity
MEDIA INDUSTRY - NEWS PUBLICATIONS

Recent News:
NEWXNEWS TO RAISE CIRCULATION OF THE SUN - 15 Sept 2006
SC GRANTS NEXNEWS EXTENSION TO COMPLETE RIGHTS ISSUE - 18 Aug 2006
NSTP SEES FLAT FY2006 EARNINGS GROWTH - 27 Jul 2006


KLCCP
Best buy between 2.18-2.21 and hope for a rebound to 2.32. The risk is a bit high due to low volume.

For 19/9/2006 the closing price was 2.24
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 2.31.
The projected lower bound is: 2.17.
Cut Loss: If fall below 2.17

Business Activity
PROPERTY INVESTMENT FACILITIES MANAGEMENT MGMT OF CAR PARK OPERATIONS OWENERSHIP AND MGMT OF SHOPPING MALL

Recent News:
KLCC PROPERTY - 1Q ENDED JUN 2006 REVENUE MARGINALLY HIGHER - 29 Aug 2006
KLCC PROPERTY CLARIFIED NET PROFIT PROJECTION FOR FYE MAR 2007 - 24 Jul 2006

FAQ

Most of the e-mail that I ve received lately, asking for the method that I used to analyze stocks or just main tembak and whether the approach is reliable in the Malaysian Market.

Well... hmmmm... The method that I currently used, which I called it the "CHAP AYAM INDICATOR" - is combination of Gann/Fibo + ADX + Parabolic (Secret recipee cannot go detail).

Whether its reliable?? Hmmm ... only time would tell.

Cheers.

Happy Trading... and Don't Go Hadyaaiii aargh

KOSMO, DKCORP & PPB

Dunno what to buy, no new lead using the CHAP AYAM indicator. Just scanning through to get some trading idea.

Noticed that these 3 counters that are really oversold condition, however very dangerous bcoz it can go down some more die lar.

KOSMO - Support 1.00
DKCORP - Support 0.35
PPB - Support 4.30

Ada brani ka??

UTAMA - Still See Upside Speculation

UBG’s share price could still see upside speculations in the short term, driven by news flows of the likely stake sale. Therefore, despite the latest rejection of EPF’s offer by UBG, investors with a higher risk appetite could still adopt a Trading Buy strategy on the stock, but bearing in mind that UBG’s share price has already been rallying over the last several months. For longer-term investors, they should continue to hold on to their investments pending further likely developments on the issue, especially the possibility that UBG may obtain a better offer ahead.

Note also that Datuk Seri Sulaiman Abdul Rahman Taib has resigned as a director of UBG on 13 September, subsequent to his resignation from his chairman and director post at RHB and as a director of RHB Capital Bhd (RHB Cap) on 7 June. This suggests that UBG could still be interested to exit the RHB Group, and it is probably a matter of pricing.

Full Write-up: netresearch

Steel Sector (Overweight)

China cuts export tax rebates on steel - Another relief. China, which is the single largest risk factor for the steel industry has cut tax rebates on exports of steel and some non-ferrous metals w.e.f. 15 September 2006. The latest export tax rebates on 142 steel products ranges from 8-11%, and is the second cut this year after the earlier 2% cut in May 2006.

Full Write-up: OSK Research

Aviation Sector Review

• Government makes decision to mandate increases in East Malaysia flight frequencies after complaints on delays and inconvenient schedules.
• Government has also decided to reinstate 2 more routes to MASleaving AirAsia with only its JB-East Malaysia routes as exclusive.
• It appears that the Government is backtracking on earlier decisions to leave frequencies in the hand of the airlines. This may cause increased competition and lower load factors amongst both AirAsia and MAS. AirAsia may still face some teething problems in relation to its East Malaysia flights and the supervision of FAX.
• Opening of KL-Singapore route looking like a greater possibility and may be beneficial to Malaysian tourism in the long run. However, possibility of opening up Singapore-East Malaysia routes may sap traffic from KLIA and Senai.
• Drop in jet fuel price definitely welcome for both airlines. Our view is for a rebound in winter before a stronger retracement next Spring. Nonetheless, we maintain our Neutral calls on both airlines for now given limited upside.
• We await greater clarity on MAS’ cost saving exercises and a fuel hedge would be good for AirAsia.
  

Full Research: OSK Securities

Banking Sector Update

• Results Improved - Generally, some improvement in the NIM during the quarter due to the re-pricing of average lending rate (ALR) vis-à-vis FD rates. Most banking groups were able to grow their earnings via lower operating expenses (or cost-to-income ratio) and loan loss provisions. During the quarter, downgraded PBBANK to a HOLD from a BUY as the stock is fast approaching our target price of RM7.00. At the same time, upgraded MAYBANK to a BUY from a HOLD with a revised target price of RM11.80.
• Loan Growth - Is Weakening. The YoY growth rate of total loans applied had dipped into the negative growth since March06. The divergence trend between the growth of loan applied and total loan growth is worrying and we reckon that the growth rate of total loans
  should taper off in the next few months.
• Asset quality continues to improve. - The 3-month gross NPLs declined by about 4.8% YoY while the 3-month NPL dipped 125bps to 5.40% from a year ago. Loan loss coverage ratio trended higher to 48.2%, a multi-year high. We believe the underlying up-trend in loanloss coverage ratio coupled with the lower NPLs should continue to support lower provisioning for banks, hence boosting their bottom lines and CARs to a certain extent.

Full Research: OSK Securities

Muhibah (5703)
Target Price RM1.95

Muhibbah has secured a US$158.33 mln (MYR581 mln) sub-contract from turnkey contractor, YEMGAS FZCO, for the construction of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) jetty in Yemen, which is part of the country’s LNG plant project.

YEMGAS FZCO is a joint venture between four parties, i.e. France’s Technip (Not Listed), Japan’s JGC Corp. (1963 JP, JYP1,924, Not Ranked), and the US’ Kellogg-Brown (Not Listed) and Roots Inc. (Not Listed).

The project owner for the entire LNG plant project is Yemen LNG Company Ltd., of which the shareholders are Total (FP FP, Euro 50.35, Not Ranked), Yemen Gas Company (Not Listed), Hunt Oil Company (Not Listed), Exxon Mobil (XOM US, US$65.36, Strong Buy), SunKyong Corp. (Not Listed) and Hyundai Corp. (011760 KS, KRW23,500, Not Ranked).

Muhibbah’s portion of works comprises the construction of a LNG loading jetty, water intake/outfall pipes, pumping station, outfall basin, electrical substation and navigation aids. The duration of works is over 25 months, starting in Sep. 2006 with project completion in Oct. 2008.

This new contract is a positive development, in our view. With this new contract, Muhibbah’s unbilled order book for construction should double to MYR1.13 bln, according to our estimates, from around MYR550 mln as at June 2006. Of the MYR1.13 bln, MYR630 mln (56%) was secured just over the past two months which should contribute meaningfully to
earnings in 2007.

Full Article : Standard & Poors

Plantation Sector Review

• CPO prices have eased off following declining crude oil price. Lower crude oil prices could reduce interest in biodiesel for the energy segment
• Total export rose by 6% mom and 11% yoy to 1.31m tonnes on strong demand from India, a traditional market for palm oil
• Production rose 12% mom and 13% yoy on seasonally high production cycle
• Inventory rose 7% mom and 25% yoy, as export growth couldn't catch up with production growth

Full Article : MaybanSec Research

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is the forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examination of past price movements. Like weather forecasting, technical analysis does not result in absolute predictions about the future. Instead, technical analysis can help investors anticipate what is "likely" to happen to prices over time. Technical analysis uses a wide variety of charts that show price over time.

Full article: http://www.stockcharts.com/education/Overview/techAnalysis1.html

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING:
Wednesday Sept 13, 2006

For 13 Sept. KL Composite Index managed to close marginally higher at 954.3 points, thanks to a last-minute spurt of buying support. There was continued profit taking on plantations stocks on the back of weaker crude palm oil prices, in line with the sharp drop in crude oil prices. Crude futures traded below US$64 (RM235.02) per barrel, well off its recent high of US$78.40, after Paris-based International Energy Agency lowered its expectations of global oil demand growth, citing economic weakness in Europe and parts of Asia.

Terdapat minat baru terhadap kaunter-kaunter spekulatif berisiko tinggi. Iris Corp was the most actively traded stock, accounting for more than 23% of total market volume. The share closed unchanged at 25 sen, but is up substantially from the low of 15 sen just two days ago.

Juga terdapat minat baru terhadap kaunter-kaunter pembinaan seperti Kumpulan UEM, Muhibah dan lain-lain. Tak banyak dapat diperkatakan hari ini. Tauke masih maintain pegangan dalam LMCEMNT & BERNAS.

Among important announcement & news for 13 Sept:
- Chad Official:No Crude For Petronas If Tax Not Paid
- Utama Director Sulaiman Taib Resigns
- Rubber Prices Falling
- Construction stocks up on positive outlook
- Salcon gets RM20m contract to continue with Sandakan NRW project
- Khazanah raises Pos M’sia stake to 30.4%
- MTD secures RM1.4b ECE2 contract
- Iris, Mobif Retreat; May Give Up More Gains
- Malaysia Cash Palm Oil Down; Buyers Cautious

KBUNAI

Trading play. Buy between 0.10-0.105 and lari kuat2 0.11-0.11.5 (Tapi kena bersedia untuk pick-up - contra susah sikit)

For 13/9/2006 the closing price was 0.1100.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 0.13.
The projected lower bound is: 0.09.
Stop Loss: 0.095

STOCK PICK - TUES SEPT 12, 2006

KL Composite Index extends fall on Tuesday - down 2.02 points to close at 953.70. However KLCI likely to hold above 950 psychological support. Investors continuing to unload plantations amid falling crude oil prices. Blue chips extend declines, led by Genting. Small caps and penny stocks buck trend on rotational play, with Iris jumping 0.095 to 25 sen, Mobif +0.20 at 66 sen.

Oil prices fell for the seventh straight trading session on Tuesday, dipping below $65 a barrel at a time of year when demand for gasoline traditionally tapers off and winter fuels consumption has yet to ramp up.

For 12/9/2006, KLCI close at 953.70.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Resistance: 966.90.
Support: 950, 942
For Wednesday KLCI is expected to close at 955.

SUGAR (7036)
Best buy around 1.36 – 1.37

For 12/9/2006 the closing price was 1.4100.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.12.
The projected upper bound is: 1.63.
The projected lower bound is: 1.22.
STOP LOSS: 1.35

Business Activity
FAST FOOD RESTAURANTS & INVESTMENT HLDG BAKERY CONFECTIONERY FOOD PROCESSING GENERAL TRADING & PROV OF CATERING SRVCS

Recent News:
SUGAR BUN DISPOSES INDUSTRIAL LAND & BUILDING - 15 Aug 2006
SUGAR BUN CORP SELLS GAYANA RESORT BAY - 29 May 2006
SUGAR BUN DISPOSES LOSS-MAKING UNIT - 12 Apr 2006


SUGAR-WA (7036-WA)
Best buy between 0.90 – 0.92

For 12/9/2006 the closing price was 0.9600.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.10.
The projected lower bound is: 0.84.
STOP LOSS: 0.88

Using Logic To Examine Risk

A fundamental trap arises when people are unaware of the risks they really are taking and/or of their own true risk profile. In fact, this point crops up again and again in investment literature, but knowledge alone does not help much unless the investor really and truly understands the amount of money he or she stand to lose, the probability that this will occur and the personal or psychological effects this loss may incur.

Full Article click the link below:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/06/logicandrisk.asp

TRADING – DAYS OF THE WEEK

Everybody knows, of course, that when the trading day is followed by a series of holidays, very few traders then will choose to stay in the market given the uncertainties present in such periods of market inactivity.

These are some basic information about what normally (not too accurate!!) happened:

MONDAYS – Strong on Monday mornings, reaction early afternoon. Buy cheaper afternoon.

MONDAYS – Weak at opening: rally early afternoon. Close higher.

MONDAYS & TUESDAYS – Strong: reaction on Wednesday.

MONDAYS & TUESDAYS – Weak: rally on Wednesday.

WEDNESDAYS – Ordinary day for declines to start.

THURSDAYS – Decline continues, rally on Friday.

FRIDAYS – Professionals generally – there ara exceptions – do not choose to hold stocks over Saturdays and Sundays.

STOCK PICK - FRI SEPT 8, 2006

BERNAS (6866)
Potential rebound to 1.77

For 8/9/2006 the closing price was 1.7300.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.78.
The projected lower bound is: 1.69.
Stop Loss: 1.65

Business Activity:
IMPORTATION OF RICE DIST OF RICE AND INVESTMENT HLDG

Recent News:
PADIBERAS NASIONAL ACQUIRES INDUSTRIAL LAND IN SHAH ALAM - 04 Sept 2006
PADIBERAS NASIONAL COMPLIES WITH PUBLIC SPREAD - 09 August 2006
PADIBERAS NASIONAL SUED FOR VSS - 08 June 2006
PADIBERAS DENIES BEING TAKEN PRIVATE - 24 April 2006
BERNAS MAY BE TAKEN PRIVATE - 06 April 2006
PADIBERAS SERVED WITH INJUNCTION APPLICATION - 29 March 2006
PADIBERAS - PUBLIC SPREAD AS AT DEC 2005 - 18 January 2006
PADIBERAS DISPOSES FOOD UNIT - 03 January 2006




LMCEMNT (3794)
Trading play between 0.815 to 0.88




For 8/9/2006 the closing price was 0.8550.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 0.90.
The projected lower bound is: 0.82.
Stop loss: 0.78

Business Activity
MFR & SALE FO CLINKER AND CEMENT DIST OF CEMENT SHIPPING OF BULK CEMENT AND CHARTERING OF VESSELS PROD & SALE OF AGGREGATE AND RELATED PRODUCTS MFR & SALE OF READY-MIXED CONCRETE

Recent News:
LAFARGE CEMENT TO DISPOSE S'PORE UNIT – 23 August 2006
LAFARGE MALAYAN CEMENT reported Aug 23, 2006 that its 100%-owned unit - LAFARGE CONCRETE (MALAYSIA) sb - proposes to dispose its entire equity of 1.2m shares (100%) of SGD1.00 par in SUPERMIX ASIA pl to LAFARGE sa or its nominee for USD2.93m cash. SUNPERMIX ASIA owns 70% equity in LAFARGE CONCRETE (VIETNAM) cl - a ready-mix concrete venture in Vietnam. The standalone readymixed concrete joint venture in Vietnam no longer fits into LAFARGE MALAYAN CEMENT focus on Malaysia and Singapore.

How Interest Rates Affect The Stock Market

Interest rates. Most people pay attention to them, and they can have impacts upon the stock market. But why? This article will explain some of the indirect links between interest rates and the stock market and show you how they might affect your life.

Full article click link below:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/06/interestaffectsmarket.asp

FREE FIBONACCI E-BOOK

Buku Elektronik:
The Truth About Fibonacci Trading
download di:
http://fibonacciprofits.com/fibonacci_ebook.pdf

MENGENALI SKIM SCAM PUTAR ALAM

Semakin banyak penipuan sama ada secara Internet ataupun perniagaan. Oleh itu, seandainya anda terbaca sahaja peluang-peluang menjana pendapatan, satu ISYARAT AMARAN patut berbunyi dalam diri anda supaya sentiasa berhati-hati.

Untuk mengelakkan diri anda dari tertipu, maka perlu banyak bertanya- sentias punyai perasaan curiga berkaitan hal ini.

- Adakah individu atau syarikat yang menawarkan skim itu mempunyai kredibiliti dan reputasi? Ataupun berselindung disebalik laman web tanpa sesiapa ketahui sama ada dirinya wujud ataupun tidak.

- Adakah bunyinya terlalu senang untuk membuat wang? Mahu jadi kaya bukan mudah. Akan tetapi, sering kali bila terdapat peluang-peluang mengatakan seseorang boleh menjadi kaya dengan pantas dan kerja senang- mudah sahaja terjerat.

- Apakah bukti-buktinya? Dengan teknologi, ianya menjadi amat sukar. Income statement, gambar penyata bank, cek yang di scan, screenshot pendapatan online, kesemuanya boleh direka. Dengan kebolehan grafik yang minima, seseorang itu boleh memanipulasikan photo atau screenshot untuk menunjukkan pendapatan yang tinggi. Oleh itu, anda perlu lebih berhati-hati.
Sekiranya timbul rasa ragu-ragu ketika anda menyelidik mencari jawapan- berhati-hati, ianya mungkin scam.

Untuk mengetahui lebih lanjut sila layari link-link berikut:
Cara Mengenal Skim Penipuan!
Jika anda nampak “T.I.P.U.”, “C.E.L.I.K.”lah
Lazy People Don’t Get Rich

NO LEADS - THURS SEPT 7, 2006

COMPOSITE INDEX - CORRECTION DUE
zzzz....zzzzz....zzzzz

Nothing much today except masuk office, switch on mesin jackpot (terminal), scan for virus, tidor, isap rokok, minum kopi, sembang, makan, tidor balik, minum kopi, balik rumah.. However still maintain position dalam Dialog & OSK.

Regionally, most Asian markets declined on renewed worries about the possibility of higher interest rates in the U.S., a key export market for Asia, with Tokyo shares tumbling nearly 1.7%. But Philippine stocks rose to their highest in almost four months.

Many investors across the region were jittery after figures showed that U.S. wages rose faster than expected in the second quarter. The news left investors questioning whether the Federal Reserve might resume its string of interest rate hikes when it meets later this month, which could slow the U.S. economy.

KLCI dilihat sudah sampai masa untuk correction (pembetulan) selepas uptrend (wave 3 - topping not confirm yet). Hopefully boleh maintain atas 950.

Kalau tengok dari sudut DMI, nampak lemah di mana garis -DI dah start point upward dan +DI dah pointing downward menandakan KLCI berkemungkinan jatuh atau pun terus keras dalam jajaran kecil sehingga situasi overbought neutralize balik.

Immediate Support - 950 and 940
For 7/9/2006 KLCI closed at 955.85.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 969.48.
The projected lower bound is: 944.18.


CI SPOTMONTH
Correction is expected toward 940 & 930 support levels.



For 7/9/2006 SpotMnth closed at 946.5.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 967.32.
The projected lower bound is: 927.46.

STOCK PICK - WED SEPT 6, 2006

OSK (5053)
Buy on pullback toward 1.40 (Risk considered as high)

For 6/9/2006 the closing price was 1.4400.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.52.
The projected lower bound is: 1.37.
STOP LOSS: 1.35

Business Activity:
PROPERTY DEV & CULTIVATION AND SALE OF OIL PALM FRESH FRUIT BUNCHES U/TAKE VENTURE CAPITAL BUSINES MGMT OF INVESTMENT HLDGS INVESTMENT HLDG & PRIVATE EQ BUSINESSS PROFESSIONAL WILLS AND TRUSTEE SERVICES

SKIM SWISS CASH MERAGUKAN!!!!!

Sejak 2-3 bulan kebelakangan ini, sebahagian anda tentunya pernah dengar atau pernah diajak melabur dalam satu skim yang dinamakan `Swiss Cash.’ Anda tentunya tertarik kerana pulangannya mencecah 300% selepas 15 bulan dengan pelaburan minimum hanya US$1,000.

Namun saya ingin menasihatkan anda agar berhati-hati kerana Swiss Cash merupakan organisasi meragukan atau satu skim SCAM.

Sebagai makluman, sesuatu skim cepat kaya atau pyramid mempunyai jangka hayat di antara 3 hingga 4 tahun sahaja.

Maklumat mengenai cara pelaburannya terdapat di laman web berikut:
Laman web pusat Swiss Cash: http://www.swisscash.biz/web/asc_company.aspx
Laman web cawangan Malaysia: http://www.sc.intrena.com/default.asp dan http://www.baguznet.com/sc.php

Setelah meneliti pelbagai perkara daripada pelbagai pihak termasuk teman-teman yang pakar dalam Infromation Technology, kesimpulannya Swiss Cash adalah meragukan kerana:

1. Petikan Berita Harian 6 Sept 2006 -“Swiss Cash tiada lessen” - SWISS Mutual Fund, firma yang mempromosikan dana Swiss Cash, tidak dilesenkan oleh Bank Negara Malaysia untuk menerima sebarang deposit. Firma itu juga tidak dilesenkan oleh Suruhanjaya Sekuriti (SC) untuk menjalankan aktiviti dan perkhidmatan pengurusan aset di Malaysia. Kenyataan itu menjelaskan, dana Swiss Cash adalah program pelaburan menerusi internet yang dipromosikan Swiss Mutual Fund, firma pengurusan dana yang mendakwa didaftarkan di luar negara. Peluang melabur dalam dana itu ditawarkan menerusi internet dan juga ejen tempatan, katanya. Bank Negara dan SC menasihatkan orang awam supaya hanya melabur menerusi pihak yang mempunyai lesen sah daripada pihak berkuasa. "Jika ada keraguan, orang awam seharusnya menyemak dengan Bank Negara, SC atau pihak berkuasa berkaitan mengenai status lesen sesebuah firma tempatan atau asing sebelum melabur," katanya. Kenyataan itu berkata, orang awam boleh mengemukakan pertanyaan dengan menghubungi Jabatan Aduan SC di nombor 03-62048999 atau Bank Negara (03-26910824/26926482/26982810/26942143).

2. Kenyataan rasmi daripada Kedutaan Switzerland di Kuala Lumpur.

It has come to the attention of the Embassy, that there is a very aggressive selling taking place in Malaysia to promote an investment fund scheme called

Swiss Cash or

Swiss Mutual Fund 1948

Every serious Internet User is aware of the fact, that anything can be said, promised and advertised on the Internet completely uncontrolled. There is a tremendous amount of good and useful information, but unfortunately the Internet is also a breeding place of a lot of misleading sometimes even fraudulent information.

It is therefore always wise to do some research.

The Swiss Mutual Fund (1948) and or Swiss Cash are not registered companies in Switzerland. Until proof of the contrary, the Embassy doubts that the remarks about these funds and their historic links to Switzerland as outlined on their original website are genuine.

The original website is indeed registered in the USA and the contact telephone number is from New Jersey (USA).

It is obvious that this company uses the denomination ¡°Swiss¡± in an illegal and fraudulent way to attract customers.Moreover, the promotion of the fund seems to work via agents on a MLM system which appears to be close to a Pyramid scheme.

Pyramid schemes are illegal in Switzerland.The Embassy does therefore not recommend these funds as an investment opportunity.

Maklumat lanjut di: http://www.eda.admin.ch/kualalumpur_emb/e/home.p.html

3. Laman web Swiss Cash didaftarkan di Republik Dominicia.

Persoalannya, kenapa perlu daftar di Dominicia?

Ofis atau alamat fizikal:

280 Madison Avenue, 912 - 9th Floor,New York. NY10016, U.S.A

P. O. Box 2342. Roseau,The Commonwealth of Dominica

Untuk pengetahuan anda, untuk alamat seperti:

Madison Avenue9th FloorNew YorkNY merupakan satu khidmat "virtual office" seperti sesiapa sahaja boleh sewa alamat menyurat di Texas.

Berikut adalah website company yg menyediakan khidmat tersebut:

http://www.yourcityoffice.com/

Penggunaan "PO Box" pula secara terang-terangan bukan alamat fizikal ofis.

4. Menurut maklumat daripada seorang rakan yang juga pakar IT:

Pernyataan "Copyright 2003-2005©SWISS MUTUAL FUND 1948. All Rights Reserved. Read Privacy Policy" - menunjukkan web site tersebut telah wujud since 2003 (bukan company).

Jika dibuat Whois check:

[whois.biz]Domain Name: SWISSCASH.BIZ

Domain ID: D10113014-BIZ

Sponsoring Registrar: REGISTERFLY.COM, INC.

Sponsoring Registrar IANA ID: 821

Domain Status: ok

Registrant ID: DI_2397620

Registrant Name: ProtectFly.com

Registrant Organization: RegisterFly.com - Ref# 19673298

Registrant Address1: P.O. Box 969

Registrant City: Margaretville

Registrant State/Province: NY

Registrant Postal Code: 12455

Registrant Country: United States

Registrant Country Code: US

Registrant Phone Number: +1.8458183604

Registrant Facsimile Number: +1.8456984014

Registrant Email: nfkgz5qfthc0r8y@protectfly.com

Name Server: DNS1.REGISTERFLY.COM

Name Server: DNS2.REGISTERFLY.COM

Created by Registrar: ENOM, INC.

Last Updated by Registrar: REGISTERFLY.COM, INC.

Last Transferred Date: Tue Feb 07 16:02:18 GMT 2006

Domain Registration Date: Thu Jun 16 11:40:59 GMT 2005

Domain Expiration Date: Tue Jun 15 23:59:59 GMT 2010

Domain Last Updated Date: Wed May 24 04:19:38 GMT 2006

untuk details:http://betterwhois.com/bwhois.cgi?ve...itbtn=Continue

Nampaknya domain tersebut didaftar tahun 2005, tapi website dah wujud sejak 2003?

5) Rule of Thumb - Mana dia prospectus/Annual Report

Senang cerita, jika sesuatu biz itu terlalu berselindung dengan maklumat peribadi dan ativiti niaga yang dilakukan, maka lari jauh2. Kenapa perlu berselindung? Sebab ada udang disebalik batu.Semua legitimate biz kat dunia ni akan bagi kesemua detail info berkenaan biz mereka. Jika program pelaburan, mereka wajib memberikan prospektus ke mana dan bagaimana duit kita diuruskan. Itu hak pelabur seperti kita.

STOCK PICK – Tuesday, Sept 5, 2006

DIALOG (7277)
Trading Play – buy on pullback to 0.55 (Medium Risk)

For 5/9/2006 the closing price was 0.5800.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 0.61.
The projected lower bound is: 0.55.
Stop Loss: 0.50

Business Activity:
PROV OF SPECIALIST TECHNICAL SERVICES & PRODUCTS PROV OF ENGR CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE & PETROLEUM RETAILING BUSINESS TO THE OIL GAS AND PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY

Recent News:
-FORMS JV UNIT IN SAUDI ARABIA - 03 August 2006
-WILL NOT PROCEED WITH CONTRACT WITH HELIOS TERMINAL - 02 August 2006
-OPENS AUSSIE O&G UNIT - 20 July 2006
-JV TO DISTRIBUTE DIAGNOSTIC EQUIPMENT - 05 July 2006
-PLANS TO GO BIG IN OVERSEA OIL&GAS ARENA - 07 June 2006

MEMS (0052)
Trading Play – Best buy below 0.515 (Medium Risk)

For 9/5/2006 the closing price was 0.5250.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 0.55.
The projected lower bound is: 0.50.
Stop Loss: 0.48

Business Activity:
DESIGN DEVELOPMENT TESTING & MFR OF MICROELECTRO-MECHANICAL SYSTEMS BASED SENSORS PRODUCTS

Recent News:
22/8/2006 - MEMS TECH CONFIRMS NEGOTIATION FOR MNC DEALMEMS TECHNOLOGY responding Aug 22, 2006 to THE STAR of Aug 19, 2006 which reported that the Company "... may ink the deal ... valued at between USD24m (RM88m) and USD30m (RM110m) ..." confirmed that the Company is in advanced negotiations in respect of the reported deal.

STOCK PICK - SEPT 4, 2006

LMCEMNT (refer to previous posting) dah breakout resistance 0.85 to close at 0.86. However HEVEA (refer to previous posting) did pullback to 1.43 (target 1.40) before menaged to close at 1.47 - game still on. Untuk hari ni, banyak saham dah dalam overbought zone - risk dah tinggi sikit, so kena lebih berhati-hati. Antara saham yang menunjukkan +ve signal adalah seperti berikut:


METROK (6114)
Buy on pullback to 0.92/0.87 (High risk/overbought condition)



For 4/9/2006 the closing price was 0.9500.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.00.
The projected lower bound is: 0.90.
Stop Loss: 0.86

Business Activity:
PROJECT & BUILDING MANAGEMENT PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT & INVESTMENT HOLDING

Recent News:
METRO KAJANG HOLDINGS released Aug 29, 2006 its 3Q-FY06 results ended Jun 30, 2006 as follows:
1. YTD Revenue - 3Q-FY06 - RM201.6m (+22.3%)
2. YTD PBT - 3Q-FY06 - RM49.8m (+49.4%)
3. YTD PATMI - 3Q-FY06 - RM35.6m (+61.3%)
Property and Construction division remained the largest contributor which reported Operating Profit of RM34.5m for the 9-months (+31.1%). The property results were better due to the well-received "Pelangi Damansara 11" apartment project which sold 646 units of the 648 units available. The "Avernue One" 6-storey shop-office project with a Sales Value of RM33.0m has also been well-received with 81 of the 84 strata units sold. The Property Division also received good response from the "Pelangi Semenyih" and "Taman Bukit Mewah" projects.
The Hotel & Club Division reported an Operating Profit of RM5.5mfor the 9 months (+17%). The Furniture Division turned out an Operating Profit of RM1.3m as it benefitted from higher-margin upholstery products. The Trading Division which is involved in building materials recorded an Operating Profit of RM2.2m (+100%). The Services Division (including food manufacturing) turned in an Operating Profit of RM1.0m compared with the RM2.4m loss previously.
The Company is experiencing a healthy cash flow and has minimal net borrowings and had recently declared a first Interim Gross Dividend of 5 sen per share.


MUHIBAH (5703)
Buy on pullback to 1.66/1.60 (High Risk/Overbought Condition)



For 4/9/2006 the closing price was 1.7500.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.85.
The projected lower bound is: 1.66.
Stop loss: 1.48

Business Activity
INVESTMENT HLDG CIVIL MARINE AND STRUCTURAL ENGR CONTRACT WORKS CONSTRUCTION OF BRIDGES HEAVY CONCRETE FOUNDATIONS FACTORY COMPLEXES

Recent News:
MUHIBBAH LISTING OF FAVELLE FAVCO ON AUG 15 2006 - 15 August 2006
MUHIBBAH ENGINEERING AWARDED RM48M PENANG BRIDGE WIDENING PROJECT - 04 August 2006


TONGHER (5010)
Buy on pullback to 3.20/3.00(High Risk/Overbought Condition)



For 4/9/2006 the closing price was 3.4000.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 3.61.
The projected lower bound is: 3.22.
Stop loss: 2.98

Business Activity
MFR & SALE OF NUTS BOLTS AND SCREWS OF ALL TYPES OF IRON AND STEEL

LIVERMORE THE WORLD'S GREATEST SPECULATOR

Jesse Lauriston Livermore (July 26, 1877 - November 28, 1940) was a notable early 20th century stock trader. He was famed for making and losing several multi-million dollar fortunes and short selling during the market crashes of 1907 and 1929.

Born in South Acton, Massachusetts, Jesse Livermore started his trading career at the age of fifteen. He ran away from home with his mother's blessing to escape a life of farming his father wished him to have. He then began his career by posting stock quotes at the Paine Webber brokerage in Boston.

While working, he would write down certain hunches he had about future market prices, which he would check for accuracy later. A friend convinced him to put in his first money trade. He risked $5 and made his first profit. With these humble beginnings, he began trading for himself.
At the age of fifteen, he had earned profits of over $1000 (a significant amount of money in the early 1890s).

In the next several years, he made his money at the bucket shops. These were places where people would enter trades, but no actual trades were executed; they were betting against the house. Most people would lose money to the bucket shops due to fluctuations in stocks that would wipe out their slim margins. Livermore would regularly beat the bucket shops and was eventually banned from them. He would then devote his energies towards trading in legitimate markets. This change would lead him to devise a new set of rules to beat the market.

During his lifetime, Livermore gained and lost several multi-million dollar fortunes. Most notably, he was worth $3 million and $100 million after the 1907 and 1929 market crashes, respectively. He would lose both fortunes, but not recover the losses of the fortune he had in 1929. Apart from his success as a securities speculator, Livermore left traders a working philosophy for trading securities that emphasizes increasing the size of one's position as it goes in the right direction and cutting losses quickly.

Ironically, Livermore sometimes did not follow his rules strictly. This lack of adherence was the main reason for his losses after making his 1907 and 1929 fortunes.

The popular book "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator", by Edwin Lefevre, reflects many of those valuable lessons. Livermore himself wrote a less widely read book, "How to trade in stocks; the Livermore formula for combining time element and price". It was published in 1940, the same year he committed suicide.

Livermore made his money by following trends in market prices. He would choose a particular stock or commodity to buy or short based on its price and volume action. Then, he would establish relatively small initial positions. He would then add to his positions if they made him money or sell them if they were unprofitable. This technique resulted in large gains and small losses. He also bucked the trends of prevailing sentiment of the markets at critical points. For example, when people were exuberant about the markets near the tops in 1907 and 1929, he began short-selling.

After devising his rules, he had temporarily disregarded them in 1906. He repeatedly shorted Union Pacific in a rising market and kept adding to his position even when the stock temporarily rose based on a strange hunch he had. He couldn't explain the hunch, but he had a strong urge to short the company. A few days later, the San Francisco Earthquake of 1906 struck. Livermore kept adding to his position and made $250,000.

He first became famous In 1907, when he short sold the market as it crashed. He noticed conditions where a lack of capital existed to buy stock. Accordingly, there would be drops in prices with too many sellers, driven by margin calls. With the lack of capital, there would be no buyers in sight to absorb the sold stock, further driving down prices. The market then crashed to the point that there would be insolvency of the stock market system and even the national economy itself.

A common story heard was that during the crash of 1907, J. P. Morgan himself pleaded with Livermore to stop pounding the market down. After the crash and its aftermath, he was worth $3 million.

He proceeded to lose 90% of that 1907 fortune on a blown cotton trade. He violated many of his key rules; he listened to another person's advice (he preferred working alone) and added to a losing position. He continued losing money in the flat markets from 1908-1912. He was $1 million in debt and declared bankruptcy. He proceeded to regain his fortune and repay his creditors during the World War I bull market and resulting downtrend.

He owned a series of mansions around the world each fully staffed with servants, a fleet of limousines, and a steel-hulled yacht for trips to Europe. He married Dorothy, a beautiful Ziegfeld Follies showgirl when he was about 40 years old.

He continued to make money in the bull markets of the Roaring 20's. In 1929, he noticed market conditions similar to that of the 1907 market. He began shorting various stocks and adding to his positions and they kept declining in price. When just about everyone in the markets lost money in the Wall Street crash of 1929, Livermore was worth $100 million after his short-selling profits.

Through unknown mechanisms, he yet again lost much of his trading capital, accumulated through 1929. Thus, in 1934, he declared bankruptcy for a second time.
Although untouchable trusts and cash assets at his death totalled over $5 million, he had failed to regain his trading confidence by his death. A lifelong history of clinical depression had finally become dominant in his final years.

In 1935, Dorothy shot their son, Jesse Livermore Jr., in a heated drunken argument. The son survived, but the episode caused a scandal. He would divorce Dorothy and marry another woman whose previous three husbands had all committed suicide. This would prove to be a grim harbinger.

In 1940, his book on trading strategies, building on the founding fame of 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator' was published. In the Sherry-Netherland Hotel on November 28, 1940, he committed suicide. His clinical depression was cited as a factor. Today Livermore is regarded by many professional traders to be the greatest trader in history.

BULLS, BEARS, HOGS AND SHEEP

Wall Street is named after a wall that kept farm animals from wandering away from the settlement at the tip of Manhattan. The farming legacy lives on in the language of traders. Four animals are mentioned especially on Wall Street: Bulls and Bears, Hogs and Sheep. Traders says: “ Bull make money, bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered.

A bull fights by striking up with its horns. A bull is a buyer – a person who bets on a rally and profits from a rise in prices. A bear fights by striking down with his paws. A bear is a seller – a person who bets on a decline and profits from a fall in prices.

Hog are greedy. They get slaughtered when they trade to satisfy their greed. Some hogs buy or sell positions that too large for them and get destroyed by a small adverse move. Other hogs overstay their positions – they keep waiting for profits to get bigger even after the trend reverses.

Sheep are passive and fearful follower of trends, tips and gurus. They sometimes put on a bull’s horn or a bearskin and try to swagger. You recognize them by their pitiful bleating when the market become volatile.

When the market is open, bulls are buying, bears are selling, hogs and sheep get trampled underfoot, and the undecided traders wait on the sidelines.

Directional System Rules/References

1. Trade only from the long side when +DI is above -DI narrow down. Trade only from the short side when -DI is above +DI. The best time to be long is when both +DI and ADX are above -DI and ADX rises. This shows that uptrend is getting stronger. Go long and place a protective stop below the latest minor low. The best time to be short when -DI and ADX are above +DI and ADX rises.
2. When ADX decline, it shows that the market is becoming less directional. There are usually many whipsaws, just as there are turbulances the water during the change of tide. When ADX points down, it is better not to use trend following method.
3. When ADX falls below both directional lines, it identifies a flat, sleepy market. Do not use a trend following system but start getting ready, because major trends emerge from such lulls.
4. The single best signal of directional system comes after ADX falls below both directional lines. The longer its stays there, the stronger the base for the next move. When ADX rallies from below both directional lines, its shows that the market is waking up from a lull. When ADX rises by four steps (i.e 9 to 13) from its lowest point below both directional lines, it rings a bell on a new trend. It shows that a new bull market or bear market is being born. But if +DI is on top and a stop below the latest minot low. Eg. if ADX rises from 8 to 12 while both lines are above 12 and +DI is on top, it indicates that a new uptrend is beginning.
5. When ADX rallies above both directional lines, it identifies an overheated market. When ADX turn down from above both directional lines, it shows that the major trend has stumbled. It is a good time to take profits.

HEVEA (5095)
Buy on pullback to RM1.40


For 1/9/2006 the closing price was 1.4800.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Short term: Prices are moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
The projected upper bound is: 1.58.
The projected lower bound is: 1.40.
Stop Loss: 1.35

Business Activity
MANUFACTURING & TRADING OF PARTICLEBOARDS AND WOOD-RELATED PRODUCTS AND INVESTMENT HLDG

Recent Announcement:
17/8/2006- HEVEABOARD - DIRECTOR SHARE PURCHASE DURING CLOSED PERIODHEVEABOARD reported that YOONG TEIN SENG, YOONG HAU CHUN and LOO SWEE CHEW had via GEMAS RIA sb purchased a total of 300,000 shares in the Company at prices ranging from RM1.15 to RM1.20 per share during the closed period.

9/8/2006 - HEVEABOARD - SUBSTANTIAL SHAREHOLDER SHARE PURCHASE DURING CLOSED PERIODHEVEABOARD reported that GEMAS RIA, substantial shareholder, had on Aug 1, 2006 acquired 222,900 shares in the Company at RM1.09 per share during the closed period. The transaction was previously reported as a disposal.

LMCEMNT
Resistance Breakout - Powerful Uptrend
Best buy between 0.795 to 0.81

For 1/9/2006 the closing price was 0.8150.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Short term: Prices are moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
The projected upper bound is: 0.85.
The projected lower bound is: 0.79.
Stop loss: 0.77

Business Activity
MFR & SALE FO CLINKER AND CEMENT DIST OF CEMENT SHIPPING OF BULK CEMENT AND CHARTERING OF VESSELS PROD & SALE OF AGGREGATE AND RELATED PRODUCTS MFR & SALE OF READY-MIXED CONCRETE

SYNDICATES 2: WHAT IS THEN A SYNDICATE?

Sydicate is a group of individuals who have joined forces together in a somewhat loose organisation for one specific purpose: that of conducting a variety of operations which will result in the achievement of a well delineated goal. The goal is invariably a certain price range for a certain chosen stock.

STOCK MARKET CLICHÉ:

The less people know: the more the depend on others.
There is time to buy and time to sell.
Go with the tide. Stay with the market.
Stock prices discount future from 6 months to 2 years.
Don’t get out too soon. Never too late.
All forces operating in a stock present in the chart.
Large floating supply large volume needed and vice versa.
Concerntrate on concerntration.
The higher the level: the wider the fluctuation.
The heavier the volume: the wider the fluctuation.
Leaders advance painfully. Followers fast but late.
Future repetition past.
If you must average: average up.
Pyramid your profits: never your losses.
Profit never profit so long as it is on paper.

PROTON

May rebound toward RM6.50 resistance level.

For 1/9/2006 the closing price was 5.2000.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Short term: Prices are stalling.
Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
The projected upper bound is: 6.11.
The projected lower bound is: 4.17.

Business Activity:
MFR ASSEMBLE AND SALE OF MOTOR VEHICLE & RELATED PRODUCTS INVESTMENT HLDG

Recent Announcement:
Proton to sell automotive plant in Indonesia (JAKARTA) PT Proton Edar Indonesia, a subsidiary of Malaysian auto firm Proton, will sell its US$24 million automotive plant in West Java, following a change in the Malaysian government's policy on car import tariffs, a report said yesterday. Safium, president of PT Proton Edar Indonesia, said here that the company was negotiating with PT Bajaj Auto Indonesia on the possible sale of the plant, The Jakarta Post reported yesterday. 'Initially we were negotiating to rent the plant to the company but now we are talking about selling it,' he said. Proton built the automotive plant with an investment of about US$24 million several years ago to gain access to the Indonesian automotive market. However, recent changes in import tariffs on autos have made the company rethink the need for a plant in Indonesia.

SYNDICATES 1: HOT TIPS MECHANISM

1. Operator collected & cornered a stock dirt cheap (or at discount from Owners)

2. Operator buy/sell from one account to another to create volume and raise the price

3. Operator give 'hot tips' to a 10 'good' friends, who in turn pass news to another 10 and so forth (ultimately 1000 people chased the stock, thats easily 10 mil shares)

4. Operator gladly sell to chasers and make profit

5. Operator pulled out, having distributed the shares for handsome gain

6. Price fell, all 1000 chasers lose money

7. Operator tell 'good' friends that its market forces and 'help' by bailing them out by picking up the stocks for them or pay them cash for their losses

8. Operator and Owner shares profit less the little bit used to 'help' their 'good' friends

9. Collect more stock and go for second killing, this time 'good' friends more supportive cos Operator is so gentleman and helpful when they in deep-shyt

LIKE AN OCEAN

The market is like an ocean - it moves up and down regardless of what you want. You may feel joy when you buy stock and it explode in a rally. You may feel drenced with fear if the market drops and your equity melts. These feelings have nothing to do with the market - they exist only inside you.

The market does not know you exist. You can do nothing to influence it. You can only control your behaviour.

The ocean does not care about your welfare, but it has no wish to hurt you either. You may feel joy on sunny day, when gentle wind pushes your sailboat where you want it to go. You may feel panic on stormy day when the ocean pushes your boat toward the rocks. Your feelings about the ocean exist only in your mind. They threaten your survival when you let your feeling rather than intellect control your behavior.

A sailor cannot control the ocean, but he can control himself. He studies currents and weather patterns. He learns safe sailing techniques and gain experience. He knows when to sail and when stay in the harbour. A successful sailor uses his intellengence.

An ocean can be useful - you can fish in it and use its surface to get to other islands. An ocean can be dangerous - you can drown in it. The more rational your approach, the more likely you are to get what you want. When you act out your emotions, you cannot focus on the reality of the ocean.

A trader has to study trends and reversals in the market the way a sailor studies the ocean. He must trade on a small scale while learning to handle himself in the market. You can never control the market but you can learn to control yourself.

A beginner who has a string of profitable trades often feels he can walk on water. He starts taking wild risks and blows up his account. On the other hand, an amateur who takes several losses in a row often feels so demoralised that he cannot place an order even when his system gives him a strong signal to buy or sell. If trading makes you feel elated or frightened, you cannot fully use your intellect. When joy sweeps you off your feet, you will make irrational trades and lose. When fear grips you, you'll miss profitable trades.

A pro trader uses his head and calm. Only amateurs become excited or depressed because of their trades. Emotional reactions are a luxury that you cannot afford in the markets.

TRADE WITH YOUR EYES OPEN

Every winner needs to master 3 essential components of trading: a sound individual psychology, a logical trading system, and a good money management plan.

Your trades must be based on clearly defined rules. You have to analyse your feelings as you trad, to make sure that your decisions are intellectually sound.

You have to structure your money management so that no string of losses can kick you out of the game.

WINNERS AND LOSERS

Your success or failure in the market depends on your thoughts and feeling. Its depends in your attitudes toward gain and risk, fear and greed, and on how you handle the excitement of trading and risk.

To be a winner, you must know yourself and act coolly and responsibly.

TRADING PSYCHOLOGY

When you trade, you compete against the sharpest minds in the world (ie. Soros, Repco Law). The field on which you compete has been slanted to ensure your failure. If you allow those emotions to interfere with your trading , the battle is over.

You are responsible for every trade that you made.

A trade begins when you decide to enter the market and ends only when you decide to take yourself out.