Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Dow Jones Index Going to 9000?

Wauuweee yup 9,000. Technically, its still testing the support zone between 10,400 to 10,000 and based on Chap Ayam Indicator, has potential to drop to support zone 9,000. The reasons are fear, fear and fear - concerned that high unemployment rate will continue to keep a lid on US consumer spending, which was the primary driver for global growth before the recession. Sentiment is also being dampened by growing debt woes in several euro zone member countries, such as Greece, Portugal and Spain.

Don't ya guyz suppose to maintain above 10,000????

Sovereign Debt:Tracking the Short Sellers
Dataexplorers - - February 2010 Report

“The massive expansion of Sovereign balance sheets has been essential to compensate for the complete collapse of the Libor market, but it has left investors increasingly nervous. If the Government is lender of last resort, then what happens when they cannot meet their obligations …… Some market discussion and sell side research has investigated the linkages between these countries – for example, the Greek banks are said to have lent heavily to Romania and Bulgaria; most of the Eastern European countries have focused their borrowing in Austria. Patterns like these will determine whether isolated defaults become falling dominoes.”

Fears of 'Lehman-style' tsunami as crisis hits Spain and Portugal
Ambrose Evans-Prichard -

“Portuguese debt surged (02-04-10) to a record 222 on reports that Jose Socrates was about to resign as prime minister after failing to secure enough votes in parliament to carry out austerity measures. Parliament minister Jorge Lacao said the political dispute has raised fears that the country is no longer governable. “What is at stake is the credibility of the Portuguese state,” he said. Portugal has been in political crisis since the Maoist-Trotskyist Bloco won 10pc of the vote last year”

The Coming Sovereign Debt Crisis
Nouriel Roubini and Arpitha Bykere –

“In 2009, downgrades and debt auction failures in countries like the UK, Greece, Ireland and Spain were a stark reminder that unless advanced economies begin to put their fiscal houses in order, investors and rating agencies will likely turn from friends to foes. The severe recession, combined with a financial crisis during 2008-09, worsened the fiscal positions of developed countries due to stimulus spending, lower tax revenues and support to the financial sector. The impact was greater in countries that had a history of structural fiscal problems, maintained loose fiscal policies and ignored fiscal reforms during the boom years.”

The Greek tragedy deserves a global audience
Martin Wolf, Financial Times

“Most of the time having an independent currency is nothing but a nuisance. But every so often and quite unpredictably, countries desperately need a safety valve. The 1930s were a time when such relief was needed. Our own era is posing what look like similar challenges. Stuff does, indeed, happen. Having willed the creation of the euro, its members must overcome the difficulties that arise when, as now, stuff happens”.

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