For the last few years the global economy has been running on two engines, the U.S. on the consumption side and China on the production side, both lifting the entire global economy. For the last few months the first engine of global growth has effectively shut down as the latest batch of macro news from the U.S. are worse than awful: collapsing consumption and consumer confidence, plunging housing, collapsing auto sales, plunging durable goods spending (while supply side indicators such as production, ISM and employment are also free falling).
There are now increasing signs that the other main engine of the global economy – China - is also stalling. Let us consider now in detail the evidence that China may be on its way to a hard landing…
Hidden inside every chart is a story. A story about where the price has been and where it might go in the future. Some stories are obvious. Others are a little more difficult to figure out.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
World With No Engines Of Growth
Nouriel Roubini is writing about the Rising Risk of a Hard Landing in China .
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